Rates hold steady for last 3 weeks

30-yr Fixed Rate is at 4.25%* this week.

Rates held steady for the last 3 weeks at 4.25%, up slightly from 4.125% for the previous 3 weeks.

There was a 2-day jump when Fed continued to reduce bond-buying, but rates dropped back down as the stock market declined last week.

 

*This is closest “par” rate for a conventional 30-yr mortgage.  It assumes very good credit, sufficient equity, and the absence of other negative risk factors (e.g. property use, cash-out or not, loan amount, etc.).  Different mortgage types (such as FHA and VA) and specific risk factors will affect interest rates.

Rates creep up after 3 weeks of non-movement

30-yr Fixed Rate is at 4.25%* this week.

Rates held steady for 3 weeks at 4.125% (which was the longest stretch that low for the entire year), then drifted slightly upwards for this week.

The stock market’s continued strong performance continues to provide the major support of the economic recovery.  The Fed did signal that they would end its stimulus efforts in October of this year, which will provide more fuel for higher interest rates.

 

*This is closest “par” rate for a conventional 30-yr mortgage.  It assumes very good credit, sufficient equity, and the absence of other negative risk factors (e.g. property use, cash-out or not, loan amount, etc.).  Different mortgage types (such as FHA and VA) and specific risk factors will affect interest rates.

Home Ownership as an Investment

Investing in a Home vs. Investing in the Stock Market

There are many that have downplayed the investment benefits of homeownership.  Considering the running average for real estate appreciation is about 3.5%, and the stock market has returned 8% over the same period of time, it’s understandable we some would advocate for investments other than homeownership.  But this argument ignores some key facts about homeownership and real estate investment in general.  Even if your main concern isn’t investment (you just want to know if it’s better to rent or buy), understanding the financial benefits of homeownership is crucial.

 

You can’t live in the basement forever

As with any investment, buying a home is not without risks (you could over-pay, get stuck with a high interest rate, live in Detroit, etc.), but the key difference between investing in the stock market and real estate is that the stock market is an avoidable cost (you don’t have to invest).  However, with housing, unless you plan on living rent-free in your parents’ basement indefinitely, you have to pay for housing.  It’s a survival expense (like food), so if you must pay it, you may as well get a return.  It’s one of the few survival expenses that can actually pay you back if you do it right (and it’s hard to do wrong!).  As you make that monthly housing payment that you would have to make anyway, owning the home gives you about 3.5% appreciation every year (on a $200,000 home, that’s $7000 just in the first year, for about the same amount you would pay in rent for the same house).  You would have to invest over $7000 a month in stocks to see the same return over the same year.

 

Better Financing

The other significant investment advantage of real estate is the favorable terms and availability of financing.  Most of us can’t afford to pay cash for a house and are required to use a mortgage, with the majority of our monthly housing costs going towards that loan in the form of a mortgage payment.  You can also borrow money to invest in the stock market (this is called “margin trading”), but the terms are significantly worse.  For example, the average mortgage interest rate is now about 4.25% for a purchase compared to 6.50% to borrower money for stock investments.  Down payments for mortgages are also significantly lower, with most borrowers only putting down 0% - 5%.  For margin trading, you normally have to put down at least 50%.

 

The Cut-Off

There is a cut-off (a minimum amount of time that you need to keep a house in order for it to make financial sense).  Real estate has its own share of costs (taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc.), but there are also significant costs associated with selling a property.  If you’re going to purchase a home, you’ll need to be sure that you own it for enough time so that the appreciation at least equals the costs of owning/selling the property.  Consider the following scenario:

You could rent a $250,000 home in Provo, Utah, for about $1500/month (perhaps a bit more).  If you purchased it instead, the total monthly payment (including taxes, insurance, etc.) would be about $1537 (0% down with a 5.10% interest rate), but let’s also consider $100/month for maintenance reserves to be realistic/safe (over time, you’ll need to fix/replace things).  That gives a total “ownership” payment of $1637 ($137/month more than renting).  Let’s also assume that the home will appreciate at about 3.5% per year (a proven average) and that you’ll get about $2100/yr (to start) in reduced income taxes (because mortgage interest in tax deductible).  We also have to assume that it will cost about 6% of the home’s value to sell the property.  Considering everything, if you bought the home and sold it after just 12 months, you would lose about $2700 compared to renting the same property.  However, if you stayed in the home for 2 years, you would make over $10,000, compared to renting the same property.  The actual cut-off, with these assumptions, is 18 months.  In short, if you purchase a home and keep it for at least 18 months, you’ll end up better off than if you rented to same property.  Finally, after 30 years of payments, you will have an asset worth over $700,000 (with no mortgage).  If you sold at that point, the cash would give you $3000/month in income for 20 years (that’s straight cash, no additional investing).

 

Bottom Line

For most of us, our homes will be the most valuable asset when we retire.  The longer you rent, the less time you have to realize the appreciation of such an investment.  Even if you will only be in an area for a relatively short period of time (at least 18 months), buying a home can significantly increase your net worth.  In addition, the exceptionally low interest rates and still affordable home prices, along with the real growth in Utah, make this an ideal time and location to begin or expand home ownership.  If you pay rent and don’t plan on moving in the next few years, buying a home could be the smartest financial move you ever make.

 

Where are Utah Home Values?

With the historic rise and fall of home prices over that last 10 years, I think it’s safe to say that we’re all a bit more aware of and attentive to the value of our real estate.  And we should be; for most of us, our homes will be our greatest financial asset (I’ll get into that more on another post).  When your home appreciates/depreciates (increases/decreases in value), your equity (the difference between the value of your home and your mortgage balance) sees the full affect.  Knowing where home values are, especially in relation to what is expected, gives you crucial information when deciding to buy, sell, access your equity, invest, etc.  For example, if homes are selling for less than what is expected but are increasing, then chances are it is a wise time to buy.

What is normal?

As with all investments, what “should be” is a loaded question.  The fact that real estate is local further makes this a harder question to answer (Detroit and Las Vegas have seen vastly different price fluctuations, even over the last 50 years).  Still, I think it’s valuable to have a benchmark, and a fairly extensive review shows that long term, home prices appreciate at about 3.50% per year (roughly keeping up with inflation).  So a home purchased 30 years ago for $100,000 would be worth close to $280,000 today.  I must stress that this is the long-term rate of appreciation; the chart below shows how much things can change in the short term.

Where were we, where are we, and where are we going?

The chart below was borrowed from The Economist and shows how home prices have changed over the last 28 years.  Salt Lake (or any other Utah city) was not represented, but the closest comparison would be to Denver.  I took the liberty of inserting a red line to represent the long-term average rate of appreciation (3.5%).  The other lines indicate the markets for Denver, Las Vegas, and a 10-city average (which we could use for the national average).  Notice how we roughly “hovered” around the 3.5% average until the early 2000s when saw the boom years of the bubble.  Then, as we all know, came the crash starting in 2007.  We bumped around for a few years until 2011, when homes started appreciating again.  As of the end of 2013 (and we’re not far off now), we’re just about right back to the historic average, with home values continuing to appreciate, but notice how the rate of increase is fairly steep (not as gradual as we saw in the 80s & 90s).



So…now what?

With this information, we can confidently answer a few key questions:

Are the rollercoaster years behind us? – For the most part, yes.  We had some “emotional” years but the market appears to have returned the long-term average.  Keep in mind though, that real estate is cyclical and will always be a bit of bumpy ride.  The steepness of the current increase is something to be watched as well, although it’s unlikely that it’s another bubble comparable to the one we just experienced.  Utah is truly growing, so there’s actual demand for more housing.  Plus, we’re not seeing as much speculation and/or many of the silly financing that played a part in the previous boom/bust.

Is it a good time to buy? – Yes.  You won’t find the deals that were available from 2009 to 2012, but homes are appreciating and at a solid rate.  Unless you do something dumb, you won’t lose money.

Is it a good time to sell? – If you bought your home between 2005-2008 (yep, I’m in that boat), then you may still be slightly “underwater”, but probably won’t be for much longer.  Unless you need to get out, I would probably give it another 6-12 months.  Those that bought before 2005 or from 2009 to 2012 should collect a nice chunk of equity if they sold now.

Is it a good time to refinance? – All bias aside (well, most if it!), yes.  Rates are still surprisingly low and you likely have the equity/home value to make it work (not to mention the options that are still out there for homeowners that are underwater).  It’s also a good time to consider putting your equity to better use, as in paying off higher interest debt or potentially purchasing a rental (we’ll touch on that later).

Disclaimer – The amount of generalization in this post would give some economists/statisticians a heart attack and it’s always good to do more of your own research.  Still, I think there’s value in rules of thumb, and that’s what this is.

Further reading:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/02/us-house-prices

http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=23764511

http://michaelbluejay.com/house/appreciation.html

Welcome to My Blog

Here it is, the first entry of a project destined to change lives and usher in world peace and prosperity.  Perhaps I’m dreaming big, but I will allow myself to expect that this will provide some helpful content over the next few years. 

My goal is create, expound upon, and sometimes constructively regurgitate helpful information, tips, and articles regarding mortgages, real estate, homeownership, and financing in general.  As should be expected, I’ll draw upon my own experience and knowledge as a primary source and then move to the capability and wisdom of the associates I’ve come to trust.  There are some real smart people out there!

While some posts may be more technical and/or directed to more narrow audiences (such as potential landlords) the bulk of these posts are meant to be for “the rest of us”.  If I can help my friends and neighbors to better understand real estate and mortgages, save some money, and plan effectively for the future, I’ll consider this project a success.

Next week’s topic:  Home Values (where are they and where are they going)

Evergreen Mortgage, LLC BBB Business Review